Pakistan’s renewed strategic importance on the global stage could once again shield it from international scrutiny over its domestic governance and human rights record, with critics warning that history shows such geopolitical calculations often come at a heavy cost. A fresh analysis argues that Washington’s growing engagement with Islamabad risks repeating mistakes that have previously had far-reaching consequences for the United States.According to the analysis, countries that become strategically important often face less international pressure over their internal affairs. It points to examples such as continued Western engagement with Pakistan and the European Union retaining Islamabad’s GSP-Plus trade status despite allegations of human rights abuses, arguing that geopolitical interests have frequently outweighed concerns over governance.Writing for the Times of Israel, Italian political adviser, author and geopolitical expert Sergio Restelli warned that the United States was in danger of repeating a familiar strategic error.“History often tends to repeat itself, and shortsighted leaders tend to repeat errors of their own predecessors. The Trump administration’s emboldening of Pakistan is one such error which will eventually cost the United States dearly. In 1979 the US and Saudi Arabia made a strategic decision to use Pakistan, under the leadership of General Zia ul Haq, to start a proxy war against the USSR in Afghanistan. Over decades, Pakistan has played both sides against each other, and 9/11 was the eventual result of this strategic mistake,” Restelli wrote.“The US’s continued dependence on Pakistan during the War on Terror not only handed Kabul to the Taliban but also cost the US dearly in terms of human life and money,” he added.The analysis further argues that despite receiving international recognition, Pakistan has continued military operations across the Afghan border, worsening tensions with the Taliban administration. It says the increasing number of cross-border strikes and armed confrontations suggests Islamabad is relying more on coercion than diplomacy in dealing with its neighbours.It also claims that Pakistan’s domestic political situation has continued to deteriorate, with power becoming increasingly concentrated in the military establishment under Army chief field marshal Asim Munir rather than elected civilian institutions.“The political crackdown has coincided with growing unrest in Balochistan. The sentencing of prominent Baloch activist Mahrang Baloch and other activists has attracted strong criticism from international human rights organisations, which argue that peaceful political dissent is increasingly being criminalised. Pakistani authorities reject those accusations and maintain that prosecutions are conducted according to law. Nevertheless, the perception that political opposition and ethnic grievances are being addressed primarily through coercive measures risks further alienating Baloch communities,” he mentioned.Restelli warned that Pakistan’s improving diplomatic standing could provide political cover for democratic backsliding and further strengthen military influence over the country’s political system.“How long before Field Marshal Munir decides to take advantage of President Trump’s patronage and install himself as the President of Pakistan?” he said.
