NEW DELHI: NEW DELHI: Parliament’s Monsoon Session, beginning Monday, could provide the Narendra Modi government a second shot at passing its flagship Women’s Reservation Bill linked to delimitation after it suffered its first floor defeat in Parliament since 2014 during the Budget Session earlier this year.Much has changed in the three months since. A bruised opposition has been hit by electoral defeats, defections and the collapse of key alliances, while the NDA has bolstered its numbers – changing the arithmetic ahead of what could be one of the session’s biggest legislative battles.What’s on agendaThe government has listed a packed legislative agenda for the Monsoon Session.The key Bills slated for consideration or introduction include:

Among them, the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill and the Viksit Bharat Shiksha Adhishthan Bill are expected to trigger the sharpest political debates.The FCRA amendment seeks to strengthen transparency and accountability in the receipt and utilisation of foreign funds. However, it has emerged as a politically sensitive issue ahead of the Kerala Assembly elections, with opposition parties alleging that the proposed changes could disproportionately impact Christian organisations and NGOs that receive foreign contributions.The Viksit Bharat Shiksha Adhishthan Bill, formerly known as the Higher Education Commission of India (HECI) Bill, proposes a major overhaul of India’s higher education regulatory framework by replacing the UGC, AICTE and NCTE with a single regulator while bringing Institutes of National Importance under its ambit.The legislation has drawn criticism over provisions that make the proposed commission bound by policy directions issued by the Centre.Besides these, the government is expected to push the Income-tax (Amendment) Bill to replace an Ordinance, legislation to increase the sanctioned strength of Supreme Court judges from 33 to 37, amendments to tighten norms for delayed registration of births and deaths, changes to the Prevention of Insults to National Honour Act, and a Bill to modernise the MSME law by strengthening mechanisms for delayed payments, enforcing arbitral awards and easing business regulations. Opposition’s playbook Meanwhile, the opposition is expected to corner the government on a range of political and governance issues. The first signs of a stormy session emerged on Sunday, when the entire opposition staged a symbolic walkout from an all-party meeting convened ahead of the Monsoon Session. The protest was triggered by the invitation extended to rebel TMC MPs and demands for discussions on the alleged Ram temple donation theft, the NEET paper leak and ethanol blending in petrol.On the temple donation embezzlement row, Congress along with the opposition parties has indicated that they will raise the issue in both Houses, seeking accountability from the government.The Centre, however, is likely to maintain that the matter falls within the jurisdiction of the Uttar Pradesh government.Outside Parliament, pressure on the Centre continues to mount as the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has called for a march to Parliament on Monday over the alleged NEET irregularities.The protest gathered momentum after activist Sonam Wangchuk was taken to hospital by Delhi Police during his hunger strike, with demonstrators now demanding the resignation of education minister Pradhan.The issue is expected to spill over into Parliament, where opposition parties are likely to press the government for answers.Where Parliament left thingsIn the Budget Session, the government failed to secure the two-thirds majority required to pass the Constitution Amendment Bill.The bill sought to enable fresh delimitation to operationalise the 33 per cent women’s reservation quota in Parliament. It proposed amending Article 81 to increase the maximum strength of the Lok Sabha from 550 to 850 members.However, regional parties in the opposition accused the government of undermining federalism by implementing delimitation through the back door.They argued that if Lok Sabha seats were redistributed solely on the basis of the 2011 Census, the southern states’ share in the House would shrink, pushing them towards irrelevance in national politics.Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, asserted that adding 33 per cent more seats for women in the Lok Sabha would not alter the existing proportion of seats allocated to states.“The proportion of seats will not change; the increase will be in the same proportion. If you want a guarantee or a promise, I will say so. If there is some good word in Tamil, I will use it. When the intention is good, we do not need to play with words,” PM Modi had said in Parliament.How things changedJust after the conclusion of the Budget Session, things went downhill for the opposition bloc. Regional constituents of the INDIA bloc had to fight one battle after another.In the assembly elections concluded in May, the Trinamool Congress was uprooted by the BJP in West Bengal, while the DMK lost to the TVK. Also, the Congress replaced the Left government in Kerala.Things did not stop falling apart for these parties there. The poll results triggered an exodus in the TMC as 20 of its 28 MPs rebelled against party supremo Mamata Banerjee and merged with the previously obscure Nationalist Citizens Party of India — now the second-biggest constituent of the National Democratic Alliance in the Lok Sabha.Meanwhile, the “iron-clad” alliance between the Congress and the DMK was shattered after a fractured mandate in the Tamil Nadu polls. Congress extended support to actor Vijay-led TVK after it fell short of the magic number to form the government, leading the DMK to snap ties with the INDIA bloc.To make things even worse, Shiv Sena (UBT) suffered another vertical split after 2022. Six of its nine MPs decided to jump ship and join rival Eknath Shinde’s faction.Return of the delimitation billAlthough the government has not listed a fresh Constitution Amendment Bill on women’s reservation and delimitation, it is hoping to succeed where it failed in the Budget Session.With a bruised Opposition reduced to a shadow of what it was three months ago and the NDA’s tally strengthened, the government is now considering “suitable adjustments” to the bill to garner support from regional parties across the opposition.How numbers stack upThe Lok Sabha has an effective strength of 540 members, meaning a Constitutional Amendment Bill requires the support of at least 360 MPs to pass.In April, the bill received 298 votes in favour and 230 against.The NDA currently has the backing of 293 MPs. With the support of 20 NCPI MPs and six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, the ruling alliance’s tally rises to 319.The YSRCP, which has four MPs in the Lok Sabha, has also reiterated its support to the government, taking the tally to 323.“Our leader YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has clearly stated that we will support the Women’s Reservation Bill and the Delimitation Bill. We have already supported it. If these bills are introduced during this session, we will support them,” YSRCP MP PV Midhun Reddy said.“As for other bills, we will make a decision only after examining their content. If they are in the interest of our state and its people, we will certainly support them; however, if they are not, we will raise the issue in the House and oppose those bills,” he added.Where NCP, Sena (UBT) and DMK standMeanwhile, opposition parties such as the NCP (SP), Shiv Sena (UBT) and the DMK have indicated they could support the bill if their concerns are addressed.NCP (SP) working president Supriya Sule said if the Delimitation Bill proposes a uniform 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats across all states, “there would be little reason to oppose it.” If Sharad Pawar’s party, which has eight MPs, extends support to the Constitutional Amendment Bill, the NDA-backed tally could rise to 331.Similarly, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut said the opposition could reconsider its stand if the government’s proposed amendments address its concerns. “We will oppose the Delimitation Bill, but if necessary amendments as suggested by us are made, then the opposition can think it over,” Raut said. This would add another three MPs, taking the tally to 334.Speculation is also rife that the DMK, with its 22 MPs, could support the government following its messy breakup with Congress.DMK leader Tiruchi Siva said that the party is in favour of the Women’s Reservation Bill, but it wants more clarity on the delimitation issue.“The DMK is in favour of the Women’s Reservation Bill on the current strength in the Lok Sabha, but we want more clarity on the delimitation issue,” he told reporters after the meeting.Speaking to The Times of India earlier, a senior DMK functionary said the party was open to negotiations if the government guaranteed that the interests of Tamil Nadu and other southern states would not be compromised by delimitation and clearly spelt out each state’s share in advance.“The government should explain the concrete share of each state to rule out any possibility of the southern states losing out, and that can be the basis for talks,” the functionary said, adding that no formal consultation with the government had taken place yet. If the DMK also backs the bill, the tally would rise to 356.The final hurdleEven if the government manages to secure the support of all the parties currently seen as potential backers, it would still fall around four votes short of the two-thirds majority required.The remaining numbers would likely have to come through cross-voting or abstentions on the day of the vote. If reports are to be believed, the BJP is also attempting to encourage cross-voting from the opposition benches.According to reports, the party has been reaching out to several opposition MPs in the hope of securing support beyond the NDA’s formal numbers.Congress, on the other hand, has also been reaching out to various INDIA bloc parties to ascertain the numbers the opposition alliance is left with following the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) defections.Meanwhile, the Centre has convened an all-party meeting on July 19 ahead of the Monsoon Session, where it is expected to brief opposition parties and other stakeholders on its legislative agenda and the Bills likely to be introduced during the session.Parliament’s Monsoon Session will begin on July 20, followed by the NDA Parliamentary Party meeting on July 21, where PM Modi is expected to address alliance MPs.