Visakhapatnam: The average rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) as well as Rayalaseema districts in Andhra Pradesh during the second half of the southwest monsoon (Aug-Sep) is most likely to be below-normal, flagging the continuing risk of El Nino, which is associated with a weak monsoon.With the delayed and weaker rains, coupled with the emergence of El Nino conditions, farmers in the state were caught between a dry spell and despair as the weather conditions could further exacerbate the impact on the kharif crop cycle in the state.Normal rainfall is likely in Aug over Andhra Pradesh, and below-normal rainfall is most likely in Sep; overall, below-normal rainfall is most likely during the second half of the monsoon, said weathermen of IMD-Amaravati. The weather agency predicted less than 94 percent of the long-period average rainfall during the second half of the monsoon.Moderate El Nino may continue in Aug, and it may move towards a strong El Nino in Sep. Whereas the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive in Sep, the weathermen added. Since a positive IOD normally helps higher rainfall during monsoon season, there is a possibility of the IOD lessening the adverse impact of El Nino to a large extent, they added.For kharif crops, the rainfall in Aug and Sep will play a crucial role. The kharif crops will sustain if there is regular rainfall. Farmers have completed sowing in around 43 percent of the normal area at the end of July.The main kharif crops are paddy, maize, cotton, groundnut, millets, and oilseeds. Too much rain, too little, or rain at the wrong time can lay waste to the entire cycle. As the data reflects, the agricultural calendar is set by clouds. When the monsoon delivers its rain in the wrong quantities at the wrong time, the entire kharif season, the key cropping cycle, is thrown into disarray, the farmers added.
