![\"Supply](\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/thumb\/msid-130455954,imgsize-39452,width-400,height-225,resizemode-4\/supply-side-disruptions-pose-growth-price-risks-rbi-mpc.jpg\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\nMUMBAI: The minutes of the April meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reveal a panel that was deeply concerned about the downside risks to growth emanating from the West Asia conflict, even as it remained uniformly confident about the resilience of India\u2019s macro fundamentals leading to the unanimous decision to hold rates.Governor Sanjay Malhotra set the tone by acknowledging the growing risks to the outlook, noting that \u201csupply chain disruptions, that may take longer to subside fully and restore the logistics network, pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.\u201dHe further cautioned that \u201cthere are risks skewed to the downside from global and weather-related uncertainties\u201d and warned that \u201cif the conflict remains unresolved for a long duration, it can make the task of central banks arduous in their endeavour to rein in inflation expectations while minimising growth sacrifice.\u201dYet, even as he highlighted these vulnerabilities, he underscored the underlying strength of the economy, asserting that \u201cthe Indian economy is on a much stronger footing at the current juncture than at any time before to withstand these shocks,\u201d while maintaining that the outlook \u201cremains cautiously positive\u201d with \u201cunderlying inflation pressures\u2026 contained.\u201d<\/p>\n Deputy governor Poonam Gupta similarly flagged the emerging headwinds, observing that \u201cgrowth is projected to be slightly milder at 6.9% for FY27\u201d in a context where \u201cglobal uncertainty has risen from already high levels\u201d and the economy is dealing with an \u201cexternal shock (that) is supply driven.\u201d She anchored the outlook in domestic strength: inflation may edge up to 4.6% in FY27 but stay within the tolerance band.Growth rests on improving fundamentals of public\/ private capex and rising investment rates which signal new-capacity build-out. Hence, to back a supportive stance, the RBI must stay growth-enabling, meet productive needs, keep the cycle turning.Among external members Saugata Bhattacharya struck a caution-first note: risk-balance shifts materially; conflict keeps supplychain dislocations elevated. Oil unlikely to revert to prewar levels fueling \u201cnon-linear\u201d macro spillovers. Inflation risks build as expectations edge up; external flank wobbles, with capital flows geo-risk exposed. Yet he flagged a counterpoint: high-frequency data show resilience with the growth engine still running. Nagesh Kumar flagged a multi-channel shock: Hormuz blockage chokes supply, sends crude \u201cthrough the roof,\u201d stoking growth\/inflation risks. Weak global demand hits exports; pricier oil swells import bill widening CAD.<\/div>\n![\".\"](\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/msid-130455967\/.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
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