![\"\u2018Normal\u2019](\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/thumb\/msid-132753078,imgsize-97184,width-400,height-225,resizemode-4\/el-nino-effect.jpg\" "\\"Monsoon")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nIndia\u2019s monsoon has delivered a surprise this July, defying forecasts of below-normal rainfall despite a strengthening El Nino and reinforcing scientists\u2019 warnings that climate change is altering the country\u2019s most important weather system, report Chittaranjan Tembhekar & Gaurav Talwar.As of July 30, India received 270.1mm of rains in July against a normal of 271.9mm, well within normal range. IMD had said July rainfall was likely to be less than 94% of long period average.However, rainfall distribution remained skewed, with central India receiving 29% excess in July while the east & northeast recorded a deficit of 30% and south 28%.The monsoon deficit since June 1 was 14%. The unexpected turnaround in July has eased fears of a big monsoon shortfall but highlighted a new reality: long dry spells interspersed with short bursts of extremely heavy rain capable of triggering floods and landslides.<\/p>\n According to a Climate Trends briefing, successive weather systems cut the national rainfall deficit considerably from 40% at the end of June.Scientists say the biggest lesson from monsoon 2026 is that El Ni\u00f1o alone can no longer explain India\u2019s rainfall behaviour.Global warming, warming oceans and changing atmospheric circulation are increasingly interacting with traditional climate drivers, making monsoon forecasts more difficult. \u201cThe challenge is no longer predicting how much rain India will receive, but forecasting where, when and how intensely it will fall in a warming climate,\u201d scientists said.Rainfall remained highly uneven. While 16 meteorological subdivisions states recorded normal rainfall in the season and three saw excess to large-excess rainfall, 17 subdivisions remained deficient. Central India was almost normal with a 1% surplus, northwest India had an 11% shortfall, while east and northeast India remained 30% below normal and south India 25% deficient.The findings are particularly striking because the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has projected an 81% probability of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o developing between Oct and Dec \u2014 a pattern usually associated with weaker Indian monsoons.<\/p>\n Share your thoughts in the comments<\/p>\n<\/div>\nEl Ni\u00f1o alone can no more explain India\u2019s rain pattern: Experts <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n